The Future of Diabetes: Part I :: Michael Shulman's Biotech Blitz

The Future of Diabetes: Part I

Yesterday I wrote about something that's an immediate and pressing issue for many investors: the future of inhalable insulin.

It occurred to me when reviewing ChangeWave survey results showing the huge potential for this kind of product that I might have been missing the larger issue: the future of diabetes treatments.

All of those treatments are all being driven by the same attitude that will make inhalable insulin a success: patient convenience and choice.

Patient convenience drives patient choice, and it's not well understood on Wall Street. Street analysts often rely on anecdotal feedback from endocrinologists specializing in diabetes, and on the insight provided by consultants such as David Kliff who publishes Diabetic Investor.

Many of the analysts are former scientists who are into sciences, the precision of treatment regimens and, in the case of the practicing physicians, the treatment protocols they have developed, understand and use with comfort and success. All of this causes a natural bias against new products and a real disdain for patient convenience.

Yet, patient convenience is very, very important, not just in determining what products may win out in the marketplace, but in driving the most important ingredient in diabetes treatment: patience compliance with prescribed treatment regimens. For instance, diabetics should test their blood sugar at least four times a day, yet the average patient in the U.S. tests less than four times a week.

A great example of how this troika of experts on Wall Street can miss things is the blockbuster drug Byetta from Amylin (AMLN). ChangeWave Alliance surveys showed the drug would be a runaway hit; the experts said no. We were right; they were wrong. The stock has nearly tripled since I first recommended it.

What the doctors in the ChangeWave Alliance understood was the convenience of predictable, twice-daily, pen-based injections, rather than fumbling with pills numerous times during the day. They also understood the weight loss potential for their patients would make it a hit, because they knew most diabetics gain weight on meds.

Keep patient convenience and patient compliance in mind when looking at diabetes companies to consider for your portfolio.

One company to look at right now is PolyMedica (PLMD). It's the Wilfred Brimley, Liberty Medical, late night cable outfit that ships diabetes testing supplies and treatments to your home and does all the paperwork. Now that's patient convenience!

Comments

Yesterday I wrote about something that's an immediate and pressing issue for many investors: the future of inhalable insulin. It occurred to me when reviewing ChangeWave survey results showing the huge potential for this kind of product that I might have been missing the larger issue: the future of diabetes treatments. All of those treatments are all being driven by the same attitude that will make inhalable insulin a success: patient convenience and choice. Patient convenience drives patient choice, and it's not well understood on Wall Street. Street analysts often rely on anecdotal feedback from endocrinologists specializing in diabetes, and on the insight provided by consultants such as David Kliff who publishes Diabetic Investor. Many of the analysts are former scientists who are into sciences, the precision of treatment regimens and, in the case of the practicing physicians, the treatment protocols they have developed, understand and use with comfort and success. All of this causes a natural bias against new products and a real disdain for patient convenience. Yet, patient convenience is very, very important, not just in determining what products may win out in the marketplace, but in driving the most important ingredient in diabetes treatment: patience compliance with prescribed treatment regimens. For instance, diabetics should test their blood sugar at least four times a day, yet the average patient in the U.S. tests less than four times a week. A great example of how this troika of experts on Wall Street can miss things is the blockbuster drug Byetta from Amylin (AMLN). ChangeWave Alliance surveys showed the drug would be a runaway hit; the experts said no. We were right; they were wrong. The stock has nearly tripled since I first recommended it. What the doctors in the ChangeWave Alliance understood was the convenience of predictable, twice-daily, pen-based injections, rather than fumbling with pills numerous times during the day. They also understood the weight loss potential for their patients would make it a hit, because they knew most diabetics gain weight on meds. Keep patient convenience and patient compliance in mind when looking at diabetes companies to consider for your portfolio. One company to look at right now is PolyMedica (PLMD). It's the Wilfred Brimley, Liberty Medical, late night cable outfit that ships diabetes testing supplies and treatments to your home and does all the paperwork. Now that's patient convenience!